Saturday, October 19, 2013

2013 Breeders Crown Analysis

Win Report – 10/12/19 Pocono Downs

First Picks:

R2: 3 Coffeecake Hanover ($23.00)
R5: 1 Lucan Hanover ($7.80)
R8: 1 Luck Be Withyou ($6.80)
R10: 4 Captaintreacherous ($2.60)


R5: 1 Lucan Hanover over 2 Sunshine Beach (Cold - $14.60)
R6: 6 All Laid Out over 5 Smilin Eli over 4 Deadliest Catch (Boxed - $48.40)
R11: 3 Bee A Magician over 4 Ma Chere Hall (Boxed - $5.40)

Race 1 – Invitational 3yo Pace PA Sired Preferred
Purse: $75,000

Picks: 4-3-1-2

(4) Ultimate Beachboy – He was victorious in his last stakes outing at the Pocono oval, coming in the second consolation for the Battle of Brandywine, a 1:48.3 world-record score. Since then, he has been competing among second-string stakes company and in overnight events. His most recent start at The Meadows appears to be a 1:51.3 stroll against non-winners of $13,500. He has shown a love to the Pocono oval and will be overlooked in this bunch.

(3) Duc Dorleans – Comes off an unappealing effort at Yonkers, finishing eighth from post 7 in an Open last Saturday. Before that, he sat a pocket trip (so we think) in the foggy Ontario Sires Stakes Super Final, winning there in 1:49.2. That circuit gives more evidence to how he’ll do against this group and that evidence shows mostly positive signs.

(1) Twincreeks Jesse – Steps up from his overnight competition, doing well against the group. Four starts back, he finished third to Beach Memories and Twilight Bonfire in the Pennsylvania Sires Stakes final in a 1:51 mile. His preferred racing position is in the middle of the pack and from the rail, he should get that spot with ease.

(2) Lonewolf Currier – He has shown to be an extremely bipolar horse, racing either very well or very poorly. In Delaware, he set up preposterous fractions in the Little Brown Jug, doing the same in the Battle of Brandywine. If he chooses to try and bottom out the field again, he would not prove successful.

Race 2 – Invitational 3yo Trot PA Sired Preferred
Purse: $75,000

Picks: 5-1-4-7

(5) Bambino Glide – This colt has been on an incredible trail of improvement in recent weeks. He was victorious in a previous Invitational held at Pocono on Super Stakes Saturday, trotting that mile in 1:54.2. Since then, he gradually improved against overnight company and most recently, winning against second-string stakes horses in the Keystone Classic. He got a short break after that win and should be fresh coming in here.

(1) High Bridge – He is the class of the race. He has tussled with the top glamour boys in the trotting division, from the Kentucky Futurity to the Hambletonian. He is going to be a part of some sort of speed scenario setting up. He doesn’t have sustainable speed to win on the lead, but will likely complete an exotic.

(4) Major Athens – He too is a part of the speed scenario in this race. He is making his third start off of a layoff, with his second start being an easy gate-to-wire 1:53.3 win. He has improved since August, but would need to step up to pull off a victory.

(7) Picture This – Coming off of a win in a late closer at Lexington, sitting a perfect trip to win in 1:52.4. He has speed to be put into contention early in the mile, but would need perfect circumstances to win.

Race 3 – D-Breeders Crown Final – 2yo Colt & Gelding Trot
Purse: $500,000

Picks: 2-8-3

(2) Father Patrick – The reasoning behind him should be obvious. He trotted a spectacular mile in his elimination, winning in a world record 1:52.1. He is currently on a whole other level against these freshmen and is yet to disprove that.

(8) Nuncio – The obvious second choice. He trotted a great mile in his first start off of a layoff, trotting fast fractions and digging in against Father Patrick to lose by 1 length at the wire. He is the main contender to beat Father Patrick, but will likely fall short of that feat.

(3) Credit Fashion – Raced well in his last matchup with Father Patrick, which came in the William Wellwood final. He was uncharacteristically far off of the lead and finished third by 9 lengths in a 1:53.4 mile. He is the best of the second-tier of talent in this field and may bring a slight price into the trifecta.

Race 4 – D-Breeders Crown Final – 2yo Filly Pace
Purse: $500,000

Picks: 3-8-5-1

(3) Uffizi Hanover – She is the buzz horse heading into the final, finishing a game fourth in her elimination. She gained 5 lengths to be second to Precocious Beauty at three-quarters, which she paced to in :27.2. She faded into the stretch and came back to finish fourth by a length-and-a-quarter in a world record mile. She draws better to be put into a stalking position and will likely race the effort of her season tonight.

(8) Precocious Beauty – Raced very well in her elimination, brushing to the lead at the half and fighting to hold command for the rest of the mile. She will likely be put into a spot where she has to make a first over move to the lead. This division has had tremendous speed over the last few months and it might prove to be devastating for her.

(5) Southwind Silence – Got a perfect trip in her elimination and flew up the passing lane to finish second by a head to Gallie Bythe Beach in a world record (before Allstar Rating’s victory in 1:50.1) mile. She will be forwardly placed and has the potential to pick up the pieces late.

(1) Act Now – Got a good spot against Precocious Beauty last week, got shuffled and came back to finish third in 1:50.2. With the rail, she should get away well again and repeat last week’s performance to hit the board.

Race 5 – D-Breeders Crown Final – 2yo Filly Trot
Purse: $500,000

Picks: 5-3-2-8

(5) Lifetime Pursuit – She is our best bet of the night. Raced very well in her elimination. She was asked only slightly in the stretch to finish second to Shake It Cerry. Looking two starts back, she dazzled Kentuckians in the International Stallion Stake, winning with ease in 1:52.3. Now with the big money on the line and a conditioning mile under her belt, she’s ready to crush this group. 

(3) Shake It Cerry – The national consensus against Cooler Schooner in this event. She sat a pocket trip to Lifetime Pursuit to get the better end of her stable mate, winning her elimination in 1:54.1. The race was very soft fraction-wise and will not be a stroll for her tonight.

(2) Cooler Schooner – You can bet she’ll launch for the lead from this spot. She takes an incredible liking to the clay surface both here and at Lexington. Racing on her own in her 1:52.2 elimination win, she now has some competition to face and won’t be given an open length advantage with ease.

(8) Goddess – She was the lone challenger to Lifetime Pursuit, making a first over bid to try and take command. She ended up giving chase and finishing third. She has been improving with each outing and will likely be in the mix at some point in the mile.

Race 6 – D-Breeders Crown Final – Open Trot
Purse: $600,000

Picks: 1-8-7-5

(1) Market Share – Has not been at his top form over recent months and was put through some tough trips against these trotters. His most recent outing comes at Lexington, where he parked the mile and finished third in a 1:51.3 mile. He draws perfectly to be put into a relaxing position for most of the mile and come up the passing lane to claim redemption against Intimidate.

(8) Uncle Peter – Currently at his top form coming into the final. He got a workout mile at Lexington, trotting 1:52.2 in a qualifier two weeks back. He finally got the better of these trotters in the Centaur Trotting Classic, sitting a perfect trip to win by a head in 1:52.3. He has the potential to get another perfect trip, but will likely be only within the late mix.

(7) Arch Madness – The clay benefits the old hooves of this veteran. He woke up at Lexington, sweeping the Allerage Trot elimination and final. He would need to be put close to the pace, which may pose a challenge from post 7. He’ll likely be on the board in the end.

(5) Intimidate – He loves to close. Now, there is history where he doesn’t have to win by closing, but that’s his forte; that’s how he won the Credit Winner in what can be deemed a miracle mile. He is not one to throw out, but is up against some tough company tonight.

Race 7 – D-Breeders Crown Final – 3yo Filly Pace
Purse: $500,000

Picks: 7-4-3-5

(7) I Luv The Nitelife – What is there to say, she has crushed this field from day one. Winning the Jugette, the Simcoe, the Valley Forge, the James Lynch, the Mistletoe Shalee and the Miss New Jersey among resume-topping performances. She will be a tough one to beat.

(4) Authorize – Really rounded into form at Lexington, winning an Open, then taking two third-place efforts in Grand Circuit competition. She has speed and can be put either on the lead or in a stalking position. Either or, she’ll be near the front for most of the mile and will likely give us a price in the exotics.

(3) Carols Desire – She is dependent on a trip. Her major victory in the International Stallion Stake came off of a pocket trip. She’ll likely be put into a comfortable spot in the early goings and save enough to hit the board in the stretch.

(5) Shebestingin – The one thought flowing through my mind is, “how much did that world record mile take out of her?” She loves to be on the lead and will do anything she can to get the lead. This attribute may prove to be her Achilles Heel in the final.

Race 8 – D-Breeders Crown Final – 2yo Colt & Gelding Pace
Purse: $500,000

Picks: 9-4-8-3

(9) Sometimes Said – Our best longshot of the night. He sat a perfect trip to Somestarsomewhere in the eliminations, challenging him into the stretch and soon dropping back. This race has huge potential to be a speedy one on the lead, which would set up for this colt to close. He has shown he can close, doing so in the Bluegrass against Smack Talk. From post 9, he should get into a perfect spot to pull off such a move.

(4) So Surreal – The buzz horse in this division. He closed quickly in his elimination, gaining 3 lengths in a matter of strides. He will try to get a similar trip tonight, but most of these colts will be at the top of their game and will put him to a test.

(8) Three Of Clubs – He looked barely used in his elimination, being under minor encouragement while Luck Be Withyou paced away with his elimination. From post 8, he has the speed to be put into a good spot and blow up this already pricey trifecta.

(3) Ari Allstar – Closed very well with the fast fractions in his elimination. Expect him to be put in the middle of the pack and pick up some pieces late.

Race 9 – D-Breeders Crown Final – Open Mare Trot
Purse: $250,000

Picks: 1-5-3-2

(1) Maven – She has returned to her form that defines her name in recent weeks. She loves to take down her rivals with a first over move and will have an easy time doing exactly that from the rail.

(5) D’orsay – Appeared to use last week’s elimination as a conditioning mile, yet still fighting to hold command at the wire. She has been just a level below Maven in the final parts of this race season and could perhaps give us a somewhat priced exacta.

(3) Bax Of Life – Was impressive in her first over triumph in the elimination last week. She will have to step up drastically to have any shot to win.

(2) Check Me Out – Wasn’t thrilled with her elimination, despite her quick bid in the final strides of the mile. She has been improving with every start, but will be up to a task tonight.

Race 10 – D-Breeders Crown Final – Open Mare Pace
Purse: $300,000

Picks: 5-1-2-3

(5) Monkey On My Wheel – Raced strongly in the elimination, setting fast fractions on the lead and digging in to finish second by a head to Anndrovette. Expect her to be placed near the front, but likely to sit a pocket trip to Anndrovette and fly late.

(1) Rocklamation – Has began to get away closer to the lead in an attempt to close better. She closed very well last week, sitting second over and flying home in :27. From the rail, she should be able to repeat that trip.

(2) Anndrovette – Was the victor in the elimination last week, sitting a perfect trip in a 1:49.1 score. She will likely become a victim of the pace tonight, but will have enough to protect her spot on the board.

(3) Economy Terror – Had no room to pace last week and was seeking to qualify for the final in the stretch. She should be more aggressive tonight and blow up the exotics.

Race 11 – D-Breeders Crown Final – 3yo Filly Trot
Purse: $500,000

Picks: 4-1-2

(4) Bee A Magician – She puts the Abra in Kadabra. His offspring is yet to lose a race in 14 outings this season. She’s so good, if she was sawed in half, she’d be the exacta.

(1) Coffeecake Hanover – Won only because of the trip last week. She will likely get a similar trip this week and have enough to hit the board.

(2) Ma Chere Hall – Was the only one to challenge Bee A Magician in her elimination and soon disappeared from all chances of winning. She’s at the top of her form, but would need to step up drastically tonight.

Race 12 – D-Breeders Crown Final – 3yo Colt & Gelding Pace
Purse: $500,000

Picks: 1-2-6-3

(1) Captaintreacherous – Duh.

(2) Beach Memories – Closed well to finish third against Captaintreacherous in a 1:49.2 mile. He draws post 2 and will likely sit a comfortable trip to complete the exotic.

(6) Captive Audience – Closed well in Lucan Hanover’s 1:48 triumph last week to finish third. He has been improving week to week and may be peaking heading into tonight.

(3) Lucan Hanover – Sat a perfect trip and took down Sunshine Beach to win his elimination last week. The confidence built off of that mile may put this gelding in a bad spot at some point in the mile and throw him out of winning contention.

Race 13 – D-Breeders Crown Final – 3yo Colt & Gelding Trot
Purse: $500,000

Picks: 3-4-5-7

(3) E L Rocket – Caught our eye in his elimination last week, flying up the passing lane to be rejected the victory by Spider Blue Chip in 1:52.4. There is a ton of speed setting up a battle in this race and with the scratch of Royalty For Life, E L Rocket should get a pocket ride and blow by them all at an upset.

(4) Deadliest Catch – Provoked Smilin Eli to pick up the trot at three-quarters, going in :27.3 (he trotted there in :27.1). He soon dropped back and finished third to All Laid Out in a 1:52.4 mile. He was live last week and expect him to get a better trip this week.

(5) Spider Blue Chip – Was rated well in his gate-to-wire effort last week. He will be used a little harder since the big money is on the line this week. Expect him to be among a group of leavers in this final.

(7) Smilin Eli – He is not the same horse he was that raced on the lead. He gives way much more easily, albeit his last start was his first one in a month. He has some recovery to do and is not coming into this race with all that many positive signs.

Race 14 – D-Breeders Crown Final – Open Pace
Purse: $500,000

Picks: 3-1-4-2

(3) Golden Receiver – Sat a pocket mile last week and came up the passing lane to finish third in a 1:48.2 mile. With an inside post, expect him to leave and contain himself to sit a pocket ride and explode into the stretch.

(1) Clear Vision – Just missed to Golden Receiver in the Allerage two weeks back. He draws perfectly to be put into contention and grind his way up until the light of the wire.

(4) Modern Legend – The gelding has had so many perfect trips over the season, but never got up to win. The same happened last week, although Foiled Again had already sprinted clear of the field. He will likely be put into the exact same scenario and complete our exotics at a price.

(2) Foiled Again – Sparkled in the eyes of spectators, winning in 1:48.2. The goal of the field will be to not yield him command, seeing the blowout he committed last week. That goal is more than possible and this warhorse will have enough will to at least hit the board.

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