TRI’s Kentucky Derby Analysis 2012

It’s the one race that everybody vies to win, the winner’s circle known as the adrenaline rush of a lifetime. Twenty jockeys, trying to do the same thing the other one is, win. The 138^th renewal of the Kentucky Derby shall premier on May 5. The field has drawn and listed below is the field, with their jockey, trainer and post position.

Post	Horse	Trainer	Jockey
1	Daddy Long Legs	Aidan O’Brien	Colm O’Donoghue
2	Optimizer	D. Wayne Lukas	Jon Court
3	Take Charge Indy	Patrick Byrne	Calvin Borel
4	Union Rags	Michael Matz	Julien Leparoux
5	Dullahan	Dale Romans	Kent Desormeaux
6	Bodemeister	Bob Baffert	Mike Smith
7	Rousing Sermon	Jerry Hollendorfer	Jose Lezcano
8	Creative Cause	Mike Harrington	Joel Rosario
9	Trinniberg	Bisnath Parboo	Willie Martinez
10	Daddy Nose Best	Steve Asmussen	Garret Gomez
11	Alpha	Kiaran McLaughlin	Rajiv Maragh
12	Prospective	Mark Casse	Luis Contreras
13	Went The Day Well	Graham Motion	John  Velazquez
14	Hansen	Mike Maker	Ramon Dominguez
15	Gemologist	Todd Pletcher	Javier Castellano
16	El Padrino	Todd Pletcher	Rafael Bejarano
17	Done Talking	Hamilton Smith	Sheldon Russell
18	Sabercat	Steve Asmussen	Corey Nakatani
19	I’ll Have Another	Doug O’Neill	Mario Gutierrez
20	Liaison	Bob Baffert	Martin Garcia

Good luck!

1 Daddy Long Legs- Became an international star after winning the U.A.E. Derby in Dubai. When I saw the program for that race, he looked very bad on paper, but showed what talent he has on a tapeta surface. It was an impressive victory, you got to give him that, but when he leaves the Churchill Downs starting gate, how will this generally turf horse react to the regular dirt. He doesn’t convince me.

2 Optimizer- He never showed much talent against the major stakes horses. I will be surprised if he finishes in the top three.

3 Take Charge Indy- Will take some money as Calvin Borel is riding him. Won impressively in the Florida Derby, although luck worked with him. Union Rags could not get racing room until late in the race. By the time he did, this guy ran away with it. This horse will need a lot of luck to win.

4 Union Rags- He has faced a mess of trouble trying to prep for the Derby. He was second to Hansen in the Breeders Cup and boxed in the Florida Derby. He is a fierce competitor that cannot react to a boxed trip. He needs an open mile and a quarter to get up in the right time.

5 Dullahan- He made an impressive comeback to defeat Hansen in the Bluegrass. He sat far off the pace and started his rally around the far turn. He was able to get up at the line at the perfect time to win. In a race where closers have an advantage, he has a great shot to time a closing move and win the Derby by a narrow margin.

6 Bodemeister- Absolutely romped in the Arkansas Derby, winning by 9 lengths. That was his second start after breaking his maiden. Although it was an amazing win, it was a weak field. He enters a group of way tougher sophomores and will be put up to the test as the likely public choice.

7 Rousing Sermon- He closed out his two-year-old campaign with a second place effort in the Grade 1 Cash Call Futurity at Hollywood Park. At three, he has not done much. His best effort was in the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds. That performance showed how tough of a horse he was as he was very wide around both turns and held on for third. If he can show that endurance again, he will be a contender.

8 Creative Cause- Seemed to have matured from two to three. After a third place finish to Hansen and Union Rags in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, he shipped out to Santa Anita and won one of three starts. He lost as the favorite in the Santa Anita Derby to I’ll Have Another. There are definitely better horses than this guy, but it is possible that if he sits off the pace, he will have a chance.

9 Trinniberg- Raced in many sprint events. He is a good front-runner and will likely take the lead in a race that is dominated by closers. He may be able to steal the race, but it will take a lot out of him.

10 Daddy Nose Best- Comes out of the Sunland Derby with a victory against a field of nobodies. He will have to step up his game to shine on the first Saturday in May.

11 Alpha- Couldn’t get his nose in front of Gemologist in the Wood Memorial. He sat off the pace and lost by a neck at the finish. With post 11, he should be able to leave the gate and be close up to the leader. One thing about this horse is that he does not like to have dirt kicked in his face. If he is in third, he will be in the top four, trust me.

12 Prospective- Convincingly won the Tampa Bay Derby as he dueled around the final turn. He still got up an extra quarter of a length to win. Although he did bad in the Toyota Blue Grass, that was on a synthetic track. This guy will be in contention, but if he’ll win it, that’s questionable.

13 Went The Day Well- As I like to call him, Animal Kingdom Junior. He shipped from England and broke his Maiden in his second start in America. He stepped up into the Spiral and won it easily. He looks great coming into this, but will definitely have to step up against this group.

14 Hansen- He raced well over the polytrack at Keeneland, but still shows his talent. He took the lead and was unchallenged until Dullahan came charging down the stretch. Although he was second, you cannot throw him out from that one effort. He lost at Gulfstream, then came back to win the Gotham impressively. This horse will be close to the pace or mid-pack, but will not try to get stuck. mid-pack and saves ground, he can cross the wire first.

15 Gemologist- He’ll be looking to become the second horse, the first being Smarty Jones, to win the Kentucky Derby and never lost a race. Todd Pletcher shined on Derby Day two years ago with Super Saver, who closed up the inside with Calvin Borel. In the Wood Memorial, he sat close to the pace and closed, but had to hold off Alpha. He was able to do that and win the Wood by a neck as the public choice. There is no doubt in my mind that he will be the favorite for the Derby.

16 El Padrino- He stepped into the Florida Derby off a victory in the Risen Star. He was four wide in that start and did not have enough to complete a rally. From that effort, who knows if he can handle the mile and a quarter distance.

17 Done Talking- Didn’t show anything until he won the Illinois Derby against a field of nobodies. I highly doubt he will win, but he will be involved in the race.

18 Sabercat- Seemed like an average horse until he broke his maiden. Dueled throughout the race and won by a half a length. He went into the Gardenest at Monmouth and won impressively as the favorite. He hit national headlines and was deemed a Derby contender after his victory in the Delta Jackpot in 2011. In his 2012 debut (The Rebel), he could not close that well. In the Arkansas Derby, he was very close to beating Secret Circle, who has dominated the Arkansas oval. Going the classic distance of a mile and a quarter will definitely help this horse reach the Churchill Downs winners circle.

19 I’ll Have Another- He did well out in California and defeated favorite Creative Cause in the Santa Anita Derby. He got a bad draw, but if he can sit close to the pace, he will be fighting till the finish.

20 Liaison- Stayed out in California and leaves for the first time. The Bob Baffert trainee will have a challenge as he will have to step up from a poor effort in the Santa Anita Derby.

Derby Selections- 3/14/7/18/19

 
Good luck and make sure to check out @RayCotolo on twitter as he will be tweeting the card at Churchill Downs.