Today is the day marked on every horseman’s calendar around
the world, the first Saturday in May is coined for the biggest race in
Thoroughbred racing, the Kentucky Derby. The 139th renewal of the Run
for the Roses has been scratched down to a field of 19, with Black Onyx
scratching out early Friday morning. The also-eligible Fear The Kitten does not
draw in, leaving a wide-open event set to go off at 6:30pmEDT. Now, listed
below is the preview of the field horse-by-horse as I analyze the horse and
their chance of winning. My top 5 selections are listed at the bottom of the
column. Good luck to all and enjoy the festivities offered today!
But first, here is the field heading to the gate for the
mile-and-a-quarter journey!
Post - Horse / Trainer /
Jockey / Odds
1 -- Black Onyx / K. Breen / J. Bravo / 50-1
2 -- Oxbow / D. Lukas / G. Stevens / 30-1
3 -- Revolutionary / T. Pletcher / C. Borel / 10-1
4 -- Golden Soul / D. Stewart / R. Albarado / 50-1
5 -- Normandy Invasion / C. Brown / J . Castellano / 12-1
6 -- Mylute / T. Amoss / R. Napravnik / 15-1
7 -- Giant Finish / T. Dutrow / J. Espinoza / 50-1
8 -- Goldencents / D. O'Neil / K. Krigger / 5-1
9 -- Overanalyze / T. Pletcher / R. Bejarano / 15-1
10 -- Palace Malice / T. Pletcher / M. Smith / 20-1
11 -- Lines of Battle / A. O'Brien / R. Moore / 30-1
12 -- Itsmyluckyday / E. Plesa / E. Trujillo / 15-1
13 -- Falling Sky / J. Terranova II / L. Saez / 50-1
14 -- Verrazano / T. Pletcher / J. Velazquez / 4-1
15 -- Charming Kitten / T. Pletcher / E. Prado / 20-1
16 -- Orb / S. McGaughey / J. Rosario / 7-2
17 -- Will Take Charge / D. Lukas / J. Court / 20-1
18 -- Frac Daddy / K. McPeek / V. Lebron / 50-1
19 -- Java's War / K. McPeek / J. Leparoux / 15-1
20 -- Vyjack / R. Rodriguez / G. Gomez / 15-1
1 Black Onyx – SCRATCHED
2 Oxbow – He is coming off an odd effort in the
Arkansas Derby, where he did not break well and did not try to get into the
race. The fractions in the Arkansas Derby were similar to those in which he
stalked the pace. He’ll need to break well in order to be in contention late.
3 Revolutionary – Broke very slowly in the Louisiana
Derby, but made up 12 lengths in that race to win off a fast pace. I do not
like how he broke out of the gate in the Louisiana Derby, where he dived to the
inside and was caught in traffic up until a seem opened. In this race, he will
either break fast and have shot to win or try and stalk the pace and end up
caught in traffic, since he didn’t draw too well.
4 Golden Soul – An oddball in this field. He has a
great closing kick, but only when things work out for him. There has to be a
fast pace for him to be in the mix late, which is unlikely.
5 Normandy Invasion – Developed a habit of breaking
off the pace. He showed a ton of talent in the Wood Memorial last start, where
he got away slow and managed to close off the slow fractions. He’ll need to
break a little faster and lead the cavalcade of Derby stalkers around the turn
if he wants a chance at the crown.
6 Mylute – Generally a front-runner, trainer Tom
Amoss changed his strategy with Mylute, breaking near the back instead of the
front. It proved successful, as Mylute was a game second to Revolutionary in
the Louisiana Derby. My only fear with this one is the fact that if he breaks
slowly, he may be caught in traffic for most of the journey. I see him being
under horses in exotics, but not winning.
7 Giant Finish – Not a fan of horses that make the
switch from artificial dirt to real in their next start. He raced okay in the
Spiral and in a non-graded event at Turfway; not much of a factor today.
8 Goldencents – This horse is tricky to predict what
he will do out of the gate. He likes to be close to the leaders, but the
fractions he has been in contention with are those unlikely to appear in this
Derby. In his last four starts, he has been within 2 lengths of the lead
through half-miles timed in sub-:47. He seems to be the only horse in this race
that has a ton of speed and can still have something in the tank, although the
quality of the Santa Anita Derby can be questioned. If he is near the top
through a moderately timed half-mile, he could be in the clear.
9 Overanalyze – Another tricky horse to predict
tactics in this field. He can break fast, slow, mid-pack, etc. He could be in
the mix for minor honors, but will not be near the winners due to the quality
of fields he has competed against.
10 Palace Malice – Could provide value in exotics,
but an unlikely contender for win. Seems to need a fairly slow pace, which is
not possible in this field (although most speed comes from Goldencents).
11 Lines Of Battle – He won the UAE Derby in Dubai.
That’s all he’ll win at the moment.
12 Itsmyluckyday – In a slightly similar situation as
Goldencents, he loves to stalk the pace but can close in all certain types of
fractions. He took the lead in the Gulfstream Park Derby through a :44.4
half-mile, then going to win by 6 lengths in 1:34.2 for a mile. He then stalked
moderately fast fractions in the Holy Bull, taking that race as well. He was
overtaken by Orb in the stretch of the Florida Derby, as the tempo was very
slow. He’ll likely be placed near the leaders and stalk moderate fractions with
a move late to charge after the lead.
13 Falling Sky – Horse has speed and will press the
pace, but won’t be a contender after three-quarters.
14 Verrazano – I am questioning how this one will
stretch out with moderate fractions being set, seeing as he almost lost the
Wood when the tempo was slow. He’ll try and press the pace with Goldencents
likely, but should run out of steam into the final furlong.
15 Charming Kitten – This horse was made for the
artificial and turf surfaces. I’d be surprised if the colt finished in the top
five in the Derby.
16 Orb – He loves to stalk the tempo. He has proven
he can do it to fast and slow tempos, but the part that worries me is the
position he likes to be in the race. He’ll likely be caught in a herd and could
end up like Union Rags last year. He’ll likely have an advantage breaking from
the outside gate, but may take the turns badly.
17 Will Take Charge – Won the Rebel not so
impressively. Not a fan.
18 Frac Daddy – He was desperate for points, going
into most of the preps during the championship series for the Derby. He did bad
in Florida, but finished second in the Arkansas Derby to a weak field. If this
horse wins, then the brass monkeys shall fly out of the jungle and bombard a
local Native-American tribe.
19 Java’s War – He is a deep closer. He does need
some kind of pace to close into. Problem with closers in the Derby is the fact
that they have to close. He’d have to get away very well in order to be in any
sort of contention.
20 Vyjack – He is a questionable longshot from post
20. He has shown he is not a one-dimensional horse; he can stalk the pace and
close. It seems that the main reason for his loss was due to the fact that the
tempo was very slow in the Wood Memorial. He has a good kick around the turn,
which is a useful skill to have in the Derby. As long as he does not get into
any traffic, he should finish well.
Selections – 12-8-16-20-5
Hoping that Itsmyluckyday! Happy Derby day all!
