HarnessRaycer Picks July 13

After taking last week off due to a hectic two weeks on the road, The Racing Inquirer is back up and running in full swing! In our last appearance, we gave out wagers for Sun Stakes Saturday at Pocono on June’s finale weekend. We bet $190 that week, with $150 in winnings. With a $40-deficit, our bankroll to $436.10, yet we are still profiting from our $200 starting balance. This week’s focus will be on the Meadowlands, as well as a profitable race from Pocono, due to this Saturday being Meadowlands Pace night. Good luck to all!

BANKROLL: $436.10

Saturday, July 13, 2013

Meadowlands Racetrack

Race 5 - $265,500 Del Miller Memorial 3yoft

(3) Ma Chere Hall – The Deweycheatumnhowe filly has rounded into form since her two-year-old campaign, being somewhat clumsy with her gait. She has made three appearances this year, with two wins and a second. Her mile last week in the Reynolds was the most impressive of the trio of starts, since she trotted a first over mile through moderately fast fractions to win as the post time favorite. She is against tougher competition this week, but her draw should allow her to get a good spot early on to save ground and kick home into the stretch.

Plays: $10 across the board on 3            Cost: $30

Race 7 - $16,000 Horses & Geldings B-2/B-1 Handicap

(4) All Speed Hanover – Being that this is his first race season on the track since 2011, this horse has shown tremendous talent. He returned to the Meadowlands after a two-week campaign in Canada, with both starts looking unappealing. He came back to the Meadowlands last week going off the favorite and riding a pocket trip to get room late in the mile and settle for third. He’ll likely be close to the 9-5 win-odds he carried last week, but his draw should allow him to get off the gate well and make his move for the front in the second-half of the mile.

Plays: $6 win on 4, $4 exacta 4/2,5,7,9            Cost: $22

Race 8 - $294,000 Stanley Dancer Memorial 3yoct

(7) Smilin Eli – Returns home this week off of a poor effort in the Earl Beal final at Pocono. He deserves some slack due to his bad draw and attempt to hold the lead. The weather in East Rutherford tomorrow night will provide a fast track, which will be a help to the Muscles Yankee colt. He’ll likely get away in a pocket spot, as Spider Blue Chip and Corky are the only other two with a somewhat-equivalent amount of gate speed as Smilin Eli. Corky drew to his outside and will either take the top or sit near the top. Either way, Smilin Eli will be near the lead and crush the field into the stretch as he did in the New Jersey Sires Stakes.

Plays: $20 win on 7     Cost: $20

Race 11 - $184,250 Mistletoe Shalee Final 3yofp

(4) Jerseylicious – We will try to take advantage of the “Shalee Curse” with Jerseylicious. No filly this decade that has gone off the favorite as won the Mistletoe Shalee. Put On A Show was off the board in 2010, Krispy Apple was defeated by Drop The Ball late in the stretch in 2011 and American Jewel fell short to Major Look last year. I Luv The Nitelife will carry the favoritism torch this year and Jerseylicious has proven to be a rival to her, finishing near her in the New Jersey Sires Stakes this year. This small field will be perfect for her, since she can get away towards the middle of the pack and make her move for the lead late in the mile; the exact way she upset last year’s Sweetheart final, defeating favorite Nikki Beach.

Plays: $8 across the board on 4            Cost: $24

Race 12 – $10,000 Horses & Geldings C-1

(3) Long Live Rock – He is perhaps my best bet of the night. Pacing a horrific three-wide parked mile last week, he managed to gain ground and come close to the leader through fast fractions. He should be able to be placed near the top easily this week, with a post towards the pylons. His only challenger off the gate that’s a threat will be Prestissimo to his inside, who shows gate speed in his Meadowlands appearances. Long Live Rock will either beat him off the gate or choose to sit the pocket until he has to brush to the lead at the half-mile mark.

Plays: $10 win on 3, $2 exacta box 2,3,9            Cost: $22

Pocono Downs

R2 - $8,500 $10,000 Claiming

(3) General Mack – He is making his third start off the claim. Coming from the $5,000 claiming-ranks, he stepped up to go against $7,500 claimers, where he was a game first-over challenger to the mile’s leader. He shows gate speed and will likely be sent for the front and sit a pocket trip, as shown in his last four starts exempting last week’s. The hike in class does not fear me as he will be the one to get the pocket trip in this event, a trip that has proven countless times in favor for the victory at Pocono.

Plays: $16 win on 3, $4 exacta 3/1,4,5,7            Cost: $32

Total Bet: $150.00

BANKROLL: $286.10

Good luck!

HarnessRaycer’s Picks June 29

Due to complications with technology, we were unable to post or make picks for last week. We are entering the fourth week of this series. The last time we posted picks was the week of the North America Cup, where we had three winning bets. One being on Captaintreacherous, returning $48, another a $16.20 win payoff on Hilarious Halo and the exacta in that race with a 40-1 shot second, returning $242.20 for $4. Those victories put our bankroll at a new high of $476.10, starting from $200 over a four-week (not really on a weekly basis) period. We’re focused on Sun Stakes Saturday this week, with nearly $2-million in stakes purses. Good luck to all!

BANKROLL: $476.10

Pocono Downs

Race 4 - $25,000-$30,000 Claiming Handicap

(8) Black Hat – He has great speed off the gate, can either clear the lead or race from near the top. I see him getting away well, but there is speed to the inside of him, so he’ll have to race slightly off the pace, like he did two starts back.

Plays: $10 across the board on 8            Cost: $30

Race 5 - $50,000 Ben Franklin Consolation

(3) Bolt The Duer – Races his best with a pocket trip. With his draw and what the horses to the inside of him are expected to do, a pocket trip for Bolt The Duer is very likely. He should provide us with some value, with all eyes being on Sweet Lou failing to make the final.

Plays: $10 win on 3     Cost: $10

Race 9 - $300,000 James Lynch Final

(6) Somwherovrarainbow – The freshman champion has not done as well as the fans had expected. She raced very well on the lead in her elimination, but being parked to the quarter cost her. She is one of many horses with gate speed and will likely not race on the lead in the final, rather try to stick close to the lead.

Plays: $6 across the board on 6, $4 exacta box 5,6,8                Cost: $42

Race 10 - $500,000 Max Hempt Final

(9) Captaintreacherous – I am always puzzled on why everyone is against this horse. I feel that because of all the negative outpour from fellow handicappers and his bad draw, he’ll be of good value; above even-money. He has great prospect and this could be one of his best performances.

Plays: $20 win on 9, $6 exacta 9/5,6,8 Cost: $38

Race 11 - $500,000 Ben Franklin Final

(7) Modern Legend – A horse that can close is ideal in a race of this condition. Most horses will be trying to get on the lead. To add on to it, nearly half of this field has tremendous gate speed. Modern Legend usually sticks in the middle of the pack and picks up cover and comes flying late, like he did in his elimination, which to add on, went in a world record-equaling 1:48. He’s always in the mix late and should be very sharp tonight.

Plays: $8 across the board on 7            Cost: $24

Race 12 - $500,000 Earl Beal Jr. Final

(8) Celebrity Maserati – This horse will lose a ton of support due to his loss in his elimination as the favorite. I am a fan of the beaten favorite angle and looking at this horses resume, he disappoints on few occasions. He can race on or off the pace, which will be a benefit. If he needs to leave, he’ll likely sit a pocket trip as Smilin Eli will want to be on the lead. If he chooses to sit off the pace, speed comes from a majority of the field, so a battle on the lead could be likely. Either way, he’ll race his best tonight.

Plays: $10 across the board on 8, $4 exacta 8/1,2,5,9            Cost: $46

Good luck!

Total Bet: $190

BANKROLL: $286.10

HarnessRaycer’s Picks June 15

This series can be up and rolling again, since my scholar activities are currently dormant with the coming of summer. This week’s bets are focused on Mohawk’s feature card, headlined by the $1-million North America Cup. The undercard of Canada’s signature race also provides us with value opportunities. Good luck to all!

BANKROLL: $330.70

Saturday, June 15

Mohawk Racetrack

Race 2 - $271,470 Armbro Flight Final (Mare Trotters)

(1) Intense America – She has shown great consistency in her last six starts, with her last two being the most dazzling of all. Against the best mares in Canada two starts back, she went gate-to-wire in 1:53, winning by 2 lengths. She tried to do that again in the eliminations, but lost by a length and a half to Maven. The daughter of Taurus Dream is riding on a big effort Saturday and could surprise the Mohawk crowd.

Plays: $5 win on 1, $4 exacta box 1,2,3            Cost: $29

Race 5 – $391,882 Fan Hanover Final (3yofp)

(1) Love Canal – She didn’t get to pace her race in the elimination with the nine-hole. She prefers to be towards the middle of the pack rather than in its rear. Nonetheless, she closed very well to finish fourth in 1:51.3, pacing a :25.4 final quarter. She should be placed near the lead with her draw and will be a menace to I Luv The Nitelife in the stretch drive.

Plays: $10 Across The Board on 1.            Cost: $30

Race 6 – NW $25,000 Last 5

(1) All Speed Hanover – This is his third start off of a two-year layoff and all he’s shown is improvement. Going up against tough company in the B-ranks at the Meadowlands and finished second in a sprint to the wire, after challenging first over through fast fractions. He’ll be very sharp from the rail and could put in a monster mile.

Plays: $10 win on 1     Cost: $10

Race 7 - $1,000,000 North America Cup Final (3yop)

(4) Captaintreacherous – The talented colt from the first crop of Somebeachsomewhere has shown many characteristics that his father showed on the racetrack. He may have seemed vulnerable to Captive Audience in the elimination, but is poised to get a perfect trip and kick into the stretch like he did in last year’s Metro pace.

Plays: $20 win 4 $10 exacta 4/6,8    Cost: $40

Race 8 – NW $9,200 Last 5

(3) Hilarious Halo – Drops in class after a disappointing effort against non-winners of $14,000. He’s won against this group before and should be placed on the lead and save some energy for the stretch.

Plays: $6 win on 3, $4 exacta 3/1,4,9,10            Cost: $22

Race 11 – $100,000 Mohawk Gold Cup Invitational Pace

(3) Ok Commander – He has beaten a majority of this field in previous starts and is one of the many horses with gate speed. He likes to get into a pocket when he can and since he is to the inside of most of the speed, that mission is possible.

Plays: $6 Across the Board on 3, $4 exacta 3/1,2,10                        Cost: $30

Total Cost: $161

BANKROLL: $169.70

Go big or go home! Good luck!

Kentucky Derby Field Set; 139th Renewal Wide Open Affair

Today is the day marked on every horseman’s calendar around the world, the first Saturday in May is coined for the biggest race in Thoroughbred racing, the Kentucky Derby. The 139^th renewal of the Run for the Roses has been scratched down to a field of 19, with Black Onyx scratching out early Friday morning. The also-eligible Fear The Kitten does not draw in, leaving a wide-open event set to go off at 6:30pmEDT. Now, listed below is the preview of the field horse-by-horse as I analyze the horse and their chance of winning. My top 5 selections are listed at the bottom of the column. Good luck to all and enjoy the festivities offered today!

But first, here is the field heading to the gate for the mile-and-a-quarter journey!

Post - Horse / Trainer / Jockey / Odds

1 -- Black Onyx / K. Breen / J. Bravo / 50-1 
2 -- Oxbow / D. Lukas / G. Stevens / 30-1
3 -- Revolutionary / T. Pletcher / C. Borel / 10-1
4 -- Golden Soul / D. Stewart / R. Albarado / 50-1 
5 -- Normandy Invasion / C. Brown / J . Castellano / 12-1 
6 -- Mylute / T. Amoss / R. Napravnik / 15-1 
7 -- Giant Finish / T. Dutrow / J. Espinoza / 50-1
8 -- Goldencents / D. O'Neil / K. Krigger / 5-1 
9 -- Overanalyze / T. Pletcher / R. Bejarano / 15-1 
10 -- Palace Malice / T. Pletcher / M. Smith / 20-1 
11 -- Lines of Battle / A. O'Brien / R. Moore / 30-1 
12 -- Itsmyluckyday / E. Plesa / E. Trujillo / 15-1 
13 -- Falling Sky / J. Terranova II / L. Saez / 50-1 
14 -- Verrazano / T. Pletcher / J. Velazquez / 4-1 
15 -- Charming Kitten / T. Pletcher / E. Prado / 20-1 
16 -- Orb / S. McGaughey / J. Rosario / 7-2 
17 -- Will Take Charge / D. Lukas / J. Court / 20-1
18 -- Frac Daddy / K. McPeek / V. Lebron / 50-1
19 -- Java's War / K. McPeek / J. Leparoux / 15-1 
20 -- Vyjack / R. Rodriguez / G. Gomez / 15-1

1 Black Onyx – SCRATCHED

2 Oxbow – He is coming off an odd effort in the Arkansas Derby, where he did not break well and did not try to get into the race. The fractions in the Arkansas Derby were similar to those in which he stalked the pace. He’ll need to break well in order to be in contention late.

3 Revolutionary – Broke very slowly in the Louisiana Derby, but made up 12 lengths in that race to win off a fast pace. I do not like how he broke out of the gate in the Louisiana Derby, where he dived to the inside and was caught in traffic up until a seem opened. In this race, he will either break fast and have shot to win or try and stalk the pace and end up caught in traffic, since he didn’t draw too well.

4 Golden Soul – An oddball in this field. He has a great closing kick, but only when things work out for him. There has to be a fast pace for him to be in the mix late, which is unlikely.

5 Normandy Invasion – Developed a habit of breaking off the pace. He showed a ton of talent in the Wood Memorial last start, where he got away slow and managed to close off the slow fractions. He’ll need to break a little faster and lead the cavalcade of Derby stalkers around the turn if he wants a chance at the crown.

6 Mylute – Generally a front-runner, trainer Tom Amoss changed his strategy with Mylute, breaking near the back instead of the front. It proved successful, as Mylute was a game second to Revolutionary in the Louisiana Derby. My only fear with this one is the fact that if he breaks slowly, he may be caught in traffic for most of the journey. I see him being under horses in exotics, but not winning.

7 Giant Finish – Not a fan of horses that make the switch from artificial dirt to real in their next start. He raced okay in the Spiral and in a non-graded event at Turfway; not much of a factor today.

8 Goldencents – This horse is tricky to predict what he will do out of the gate. He likes to be close to the leaders, but the fractions he has been in contention with are those unlikely to appear in this Derby. In his last four starts, he has been within 2 lengths of the lead through half-miles timed in sub-:47. He seems to be the only horse in this race that has a ton of speed and can still have something in the tank, although the quality of the Santa Anita Derby can be questioned. If he is near the top through a moderately timed half-mile, he could be in the clear.

9 Overanalyze – Another tricky horse to predict tactics in this field. He can break fast, slow, mid-pack, etc. He could be in the mix for minor honors, but will not be near the winners due to the quality of fields he has competed against.

10 Palace Malice – Could provide value in exotics, but an unlikely contender for win. Seems to need a fairly slow pace, which is not possible in this field (although most speed comes from Goldencents).

11 Lines Of Battle – He won the UAE Derby in Dubai. That’s all he’ll win at the moment.

12 Itsmyluckyday – In a slightly similar situation as Goldencents, he loves to stalk the pace but can close in all certain types of fractions. He took the lead in the Gulfstream Park Derby through a :44.4 half-mile, then going to win by 6 lengths in 1:34.2 for a mile. He then stalked moderately fast fractions in the Holy Bull, taking that race as well. He was overtaken by Orb in the stretch of the Florida Derby, as the tempo was very slow. He’ll likely be placed near the leaders and stalk moderate fractions with a move late to charge after the lead.

13 Falling Sky – Horse has speed and will press the pace, but won’t be a contender after three-quarters.

14 Verrazano – I am questioning how this one will stretch out with moderate fractions being set, seeing as he almost lost the Wood when the tempo was slow. He’ll try and press the pace with Goldencents likely, but should run out of steam into the final furlong.

15 Charming Kitten – This horse was made for the artificial and turf surfaces. I’d be surprised if the colt finished in the top five in the Derby.

16 Orb – He loves to stalk the tempo. He has proven he can do it to fast and slow tempos, but the part that worries me is the position he likes to be in the race. He’ll likely be caught in a herd and could end up like Union Rags last year. He’ll likely have an advantage breaking from the outside gate, but may take the turns badly.

17 Will Take Charge – Won the Rebel not so impressively. Not a fan.

18 Frac Daddy – He was desperate for points, going into most of the preps during the championship series for the Derby. He did bad in Florida, but finished second in the Arkansas Derby to a weak field. If this horse wins, then the brass monkeys shall fly out of the jungle and bombard a local Native-American tribe.

19 Java’s War – He is a deep closer. He does need some kind of pace to close into. Problem with closers in the Derby is the fact that they have to close. He’d have to get away very well in order to be in any sort of contention.

20 Vyjack – He is a questionable longshot from post 20. He has shown he is not a one-dimensional horse; he can stalk the pace and close. It seems that the main reason for his loss was due to the fact that the tempo was very slow in the Wood Memorial. He has a good kick around the turn, which is a useful skill to have in the Derby. As long as he does not get into any traffic, he should finish well.

Selections – 12-8-16-20-5

Hoping that Itsmyluckyday! Happy Derby day all! 

HarnessRaycer’s Picks March 29 & March 30

After several months since the first week of this series, I decided to renew it. Since we had no luck whatsoever at The Meadowlands in the Pick 4, tallying a deficit of more than $200, I decided to fall back on this due to a big win that came to us in week one. We bet $40 on December 22 and one horse paid us a ton of money. High Def Z Tam won the Preferred pace, returning $19.90 to win. We put $6 on him to win and got $59.70, but we also hit the exacta, which returned $206.20 for $4. Our $200 bankroll greatly increased to $425.90 off that one day! Sadly, High Def Z Tam died in a race accident shortly after that victory, which makes that win a memorable one. I am back to bring more profitable bets and get you more bang for your buck at different tracks across North America. Good luck!

BANKROLL: $425.90

Friday, March 29

Harrah’s Philadelphia Race #8

(3) Gambler’s Tale – He is a sharp horse shipping in from The Meadowlands. He races against similar today and should be placed near the lead, a spot most winners at Philly are located for the mile.

Plays: $4 Across The Board on 3, $2 exacta box 2,3,7    Cost: $24

Yonkers Raceway Race #5

(1) Big Sky Storm – He drops in class and draws the rail after racing from post 8 against better. He closed well to finish fourth in that effort, should be very sharp from the inside.

Plays: $6 win on 1, $2 Place-Show on 1                                Cost: $10

Buffalo Raceway Race #5

(7) Simple Lease – This gelding has shown three good efforts from outside posts against similar. He’ll be somewhere on the board and at Buffalo, the outside post horses are very profitable if they hit the board.

Plays: $4 Across The Board on 7                                           Cost: $12

Saturday, March 30

Meadowlands Racetrack Race #7

(2) Bolero Andrew – If any upset were to come in at the Meadowlands on Saturday, it would likely be in this event. The B-1 class at The Meadowlands has proven to be a company of fierce competition, attracting the same horses week in and week out. He gets post relief off of a big mile against this group from post 8. He’ll likely be near or on the lead and have something saved for the stretch drive.

Plays: $10 Across The Board on 2, $2 exacta 2/1,3,6            Cost: $36

Meadowlands Racetrack Race #9

(6) The Pokester – This horse has never been the same since he dropped from the A-2. He is very sharp, but seems to get into traffic and or issues often. He has a strong late kick, so if he’s off the pace, he can recover. He’ll likely try to ride cover for a victory and be greater value than his 3-1 odds last week stepping down.

Plays: $4 Win on 6, $2 exacta box 1,6,10                               Cost: $16 

Woodbine Racetrack Race #4 

(8) Monte Cristo – This gelding qualifies for one of my favorite angles at Woodbine. He is coming off a good effort against this class two starts back and stepped up, only to do poorly against better. He drops back down into a company he’s done well in before and though he did not get the luck of the draw, expect him to be in the mile late and or near the lead and make a move late.

Plays: $4 Win on 8, $4 exacta 8/2,4                                        Cost: $12

Total Cost: $110

Bankroll: $315.90

Good luck!