After his 1:47.4 victory in the North America Cup, crowds
all around the standardbred hemisphere think that he’ll dominate this division
this year.
Then, I come in, proving he won’t.
It may be true that Sweet Lou leads the division, but that
doesn’t mean he will beat this group in every start. What makes a great horse
is he can lose, but make up for it the next start by doing something
tremendous.
I’ll use Rock N Roll Heaven as an example. He was the super
horse of 2010 and he lost some of the major races, including the Meadowlands
Pace and North America Cup. But that doesn’t take away from how he did it that
established his great legacy.
Rock N Roll Heaven started out his campaign with a win in the Berry’s Creek,
which was not run in 2012, and rebounded to go the fastest mile in New Jersey
Sires Stakes history, going 1:48.3.
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| Rock N Roll Heaven banked $2,748,818 in his campaign. |
One of his major lows came in the Burlington, where he was
caught in the fog and the light of the teletimer spooked him. He broke stride
and circled the course in the wrong direction.
Qualifying four days before, Rock N Roll Heaven then took
his North America Cup elimination in 1:48.4 (One second slower than Sweet Lou),
to come up short in the final and lose to Sportswriter.
When Rock N Roll Heaven shipped back to the Meadowlands, he
went the fastest Meadowlands Pace elimination in 1:47.3. Is it possible that
Sweet Lou can face the same fate?
That is where I’m getting at. Sweet Lou may never equal Rock
N Roll Heaven, but he is in the same spot as he was two years ago. Breaking the
Canadian record, Sweet Lou will have to face the misfortune of some of the
favorites in the North America Cup.
Right now, you’re probably saying well, who can beat Sweet
Lou. One quote said that, “Every so often, there comes to racing a horse so
perfectly conformed, so talented and so tragic that it breaks the hearts of
even the most hardened horsemen.” That book came from The Complete Book of
Thoroughbred Racing, aimed towards the great filly Ruffian.
It can slightly relate to Sweet Lou. There is no doubt that
he is talented, but talent is one thing and luck is another. Any horsemen will
tell you that it is entirely based on the trip, unless you get that horse of a
lifetime. If that horse is Sweet Lou, that is too early to tell, but from a
handicappers view, anything is possible.
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| Hurrikane Kingcole winning a leg of the NJSS |
One competitor throughout the year will be Hurrikane
Kingcole. Making a break in his elimination, he paced some unbelievable
fractions. He went :30.3, :58 (:27.2), 1:23.3 (:25.3) and 1:49.2 (:25.4).
Analyzing those fractions, you will see his final half was in :51.2 and final
three-quarters in an astonishing 1:18.3! If you don’t know, the fastest
three-quarters ever was in the 2009 Meadowlands Pace, where Somebeachsomewhere
paced 1:19.1. The three-year-old son of Cams Card Shark was not in tip-top
shape at two, but looks to beat a monster closer at three.
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| Ontario-Sired Warrawee Needy |
Another threat on the trail is the Jamieson trained Warawee
Needy. The three-year-old went amazing miles in the Ontario Sires Stakes, but did
not equal Sweet Lou’s sub-1:50 Breeders Crown triumph. But, it takes one bad
move to change the entire outcome of the race and Warawee Needy will likely
follow Up The Credit’s path, just being slightly greater than he.
The Virgil Morgan trained Pet Rock also seems to be a
likely-spoiler this stakes season. The Rooney champ always gets into the race
late and seems to know how to get the trip. He may be like Rockin Image in
2010, running-up to Rock N Roll Heaven in nearly every outing.
The last one I’ll mention is oddball Simply Business. He
seems to be as tempered as Hypnotic Blue Chip, by that I mean he races when he
feels like it. How can we tell? Look at his last couple of lines. He lost his
Metro elimination last year and exploded in the final. Its all up to how he
looks before the race.
There are many more that can challenge Sweet Lou in
his 2012 campaign. You can’t assume that he is the best from one race. A good
horse can win, a great horse can win big, but a champion is truly the best. It
is too early to tell if Sweet Lou is harness racing's next superstar.
